Visible Alpha

Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 19 brokers · 677 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-24.

Verizon's broker models frame a wireless-and-broadband convergence story: fixed-wireless and fiber drive connections growth while wireless service revenue and Consumer EBITDA compound modestly. Margins widen — EBITDA margin toward ~39% — and free cash flow climbs from roughly $20B to ~$25B, steadily covering a low-single-digit dividend. Headline revenue and EPS consensus is tight and well-covered (see the CapIQ tab); the differentiated debate lives in the operating KPIs below, where forward-year coverage is thin.

Forward KPI detail rests on a handful of brokers

FY-2025 columns reflect 15-19 broker models of a just-reported year; the FY-2026 to FY-2028 net-add, FWA and segment-EBITDA lines below are carried by only 2-6 brokers, and a few (FWA ARPU forward, Consumer postpaid net adds FY-2028, Frontier revenue) rest on a single broker. Treat the forward KPI dispersion as thin, not settled.

Fixed-wireless is the broadband engine, but net-add momentum rolls over

Models keep scaling the FWA base but taper annual net adds year after year as the addressable, already-passed footprint matures. ARPU is modeled essentially flat near $48.

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Subscribers	—	—	—	—	—	—
Ending subscribers - Fixed wireless access (FWA) broadband(K#)	5.67m Number	6.67m Number	7.52m Number	8.28m Number	+17.6%	14
Average subs - Fixed wireless access (FWA) broadband(K#)	5.11m Number	6.20m Number	7.09m Number	7.79m Number	+21.3%	14
Net adds	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net adds- Fixed wireless access (FWA) broadband(K#)	1.08m Number	944,580 Number	843,776 Number	705,045 Number	-12.3%	14
Unit economics	—	—	—	—	—	—
ARPU - Fixed wireless access (FWA) broadband($)	$47.90	$47.94	$48.42	$48.90	+0.1%	8

Key drivers

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Net adds - Wireless retail postpaid phones(K#)	158,640 Number	813,053 Number	1.06m Number	1.06m Number	+412.5%	14
Net adds - Wireless Retail postpaid phone - Consumer(K#)	-25,266 Number	554,801 Number	690,636 Number	744,832 Number	+2295.8%	14
Net Adds - Wireless Retail postpaid phones - Business(K#)	193,967 Number	319,332 Number	329,795 Number	355,803 Number	+64.6%	13

Key drivers

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Fiber broadband subscribers(K#)	7.92m Number	11.26m Number	11.89m Number	12.40m Number	+42.1%	16
Net adds - Fiber broadband(K#)	192,484 Number	3.40m Number	695,035 Number	664,346 Number	+1664.0%	16
Internal/organic Net adds - Fiber broadband(K#)	—	589,000 Number	604,250 Number	565,000 Number	—	10

Key drivers

EBITDA and FCF margins expand while capex/sales drifts to ~11.6%, pushing free cash flow higher and the dividend payout ratio down even as the dividend keeps rising.

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Margins	—	—	—	—	—	—
EBITDA margin(%)	36.4%	38.1%	38.3%	38.7%	+1.8pt	19
FCF margin(%)	14.7%	16.0%	16.3%	17.1%	+1.3pt	15
Cash flow	—	—	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow	$20.33bn	$22.50bn	$23.44bn	$24.88bn	+10.7%	15
Free cash flow per share($)	$4.81	$5.41	$5.72	$6.36	+12.4%	14
CapEx / Sales(%)	12.8%	11.6%	11.5%	11.5%	-1.2pt	15
Returns	—	—	—	—	—	—
Dividends declared per common share($)	$2.73	$2.83	$2.90	$2.95	+3.5%	18
Dividend payout ratio(%)	58.4%	56.5%	55.0%	51.7%	-2.0pt	17

The forward debate is how fast the growth KPIs decelerate

Brokers converge on the P&L headline but split on the pace of FWA and fiber additions and the durability of the postpaid rebound — each row rests on few models.

Line	Period	Median	Q1–Q3	Min–max	Brokers
Net adds- Fixed wireless access (FWA) broadband(K#)	FY-2028E	760,000 Number	657,568 Number–780,000 Number	555,135 Number–800,000 Number	3
Net adds - Wireless retail postpaid phones(K#)	FY-2028E	1.05m Number	957,750 Number–1.15m Number	831,000 Number–1.31m Number	4
Net adds - Fiber broadband(K#)	FY-2027E	683,481 Number	608,750 Number–765,741 Number	516,000 Number–910,250 Number	6

Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.